The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has acknowledged filings from Cboe BZX Exchange to list spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
Analysts are speculating on the SEC’s likelihood of approving these ETFs. Bloomberg ETF experts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas estimate a 65% approval chance, while the prediction market Polymarket puts it at 78% by the end of 2025. Other firms, including Canary Capital and WisdomTree, have also filed for XRP ETFs, adding to the growing institutional interest in cryptocurrency investment products.
The SEC’s approach to XRP has evolved since its legal battle with Ripple Labs. In August 2024, a federal judge ruled that XRP itself is not a security but may be classified as one under certain conditions. The SEC’s latest filing refers to XRP as a commodity, aligning it with Bitcoin and Ethereum. Bitwise’s application notes that it has no direct ties to Ripple Labs and argues that XRP does not meet the criteria for being considered a security.
XRP’s price has surged following the ETF filings and shifting regulatory stance. After years of consolidation, the cryptocurrency broke out in late 2024 as investors reacted to increasing institutional demand. Beyond XRP, other cryptocurrency ETFs are in the pipeline, including those focused on Solana, Litecoin, and Dogecoin. The broader crypto ETF market continues to expand, with issuers exploring new mechanisms such as staking and in-kind redemptions. On Feb. 14, Nasdaq listed the Hashdex Nasdaq Crypto Index U.S. ETF, marking the first spot crypto index fund in the U.S.
The approval process for XRP ETFs comes as the Trump administration embraces a more crypto-friendly stance, though 21Shares initially submitted its Core XRP Trust ETF application shortly before the 2024 election. Since taking office, Trump has promoted policies to position the U.S. as a leader in the crypto industry and appointed regulators supportive of digital assets. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse remains optimistic about ETF approvals, citing increasing institutional interest and evolving regulations. As Ripple continues developing the XRP Ledger for decentralized finance applications, the market will closely watch how the SEC handles crypto ETF approvals in the coming months.