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The Bitcoin mining landscape is bracing for a significant shake-up as the next <a href="https://ultramining.com/news/en/heat-waves-and-halving-bitcoin-miners-cash-in-amid-rising-prices/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">halving</a> event nears, with predictions from Galaxy Digital pointing to a potential 20% drop in <a href="https://ultramining.com/news/en/bitcoin-miners-set-for-a-tough-ride-as-2024-halving-nears-jp-morgan/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">hash rate</a>. The anticipated halving, which will reduce block rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, is expected to render older mining rigs economically unviable, forcing miners to decommission them, according to <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-halving-knock-20-percent-hash-rate-offline-galaxy" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Cointelegraph</a>.
As of late 2023, eight ASIC miner models were responsible for over 70% of the Bitcoin hash rate, according to a report by Galaxy's mining analysts citing Coin Metrics data. The analysis suggests that 15-20% of the hash rate from these ASIC models could go offline post-halving, considering various breakeven scenarios for the mining rigs based on Bitcoin prices, power costs, and transaction fees.
In a more conservative estimate, nearly all older rigs, like <a href="https://ultramining.com/en/manufacturers/bitmain/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Bitmain</a>'s S9 and <a href="https://ultramining.com/en/manufacturers/microbt/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">MicroBT</a>'s M32, would be shut down, while newer models such as the <a href="https://ultramining.com//en/hardware/antminer-s19/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Antminer S19</a> and S19J Pro are expected to largely survive the cut. These newer models comprised over half of Bitcoin's hash rate in 2023 and are likely to continue their dominance due to their efficiency.
The report also anticipates some of the older models could switch hands, moving to miners with access to cheaper power, rather than being taken offline entirely. This potential redistribution of <a href="https://ultramining.com/news/en/immersion-cooling-transforms-chinas-crypto-mining-landscape/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">mining equipment</a> could serve as an upgrade for miners currently operating older rigs.
This halving event is a critical juncture for Bitcoin mining, an industry already impacted by fluctuating prices and escalating power costs. As block rewards diminish, only the most efficient operations will remain profitable, potentially leading to greater consolidation in the mining sector and impacting the global distribution of hash power.

Impending Bitcoin Halving May Knock Out 20% of Miners, Galaxy Digital Forecasts

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